It's Hard To Believe

A disaster for Russian propaganda.

On 8 February, the three Baltic states - Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia - disconnected from the common power grid with Russia and Belarus.

It is hard to believe, but during the 34 years after regaining independence, after joining the European Union and NATO, the Baltic states still remained in this energy system, which created serious prerequisites for Russian blackmail in moments of crisis.

‘If everything goes according to plan, nobody will notice anything, but in terms of its significance this step can be compared to introducing the krona (which replaced the Soviet ruble in 1992 and gave way to the euro in 2011) or joining the European Union. With this carefully prepared step, we reduce geopolitical risks and gain complete independence from Russia, which still has some influence on our electricity grid and market. ... We have been preparing for decades to leave the Russian energy system, and since 2018-2019 we have increased our efforts in this regard,' Kalle Kilk, head of the Estonian Elering energy campaign, said on the eve of the withdrawal.

And Lithuanian energy expert Valdemar Fiodorovic explains: ‘For many years, the energy ring with Russia has been a kind of umbilical cord that Russia has used for energy blackmail purposes - similar to oil and gas supplies. While the dependence on the latter was successfully overcome, the electricity supply remained the last chain that prevented Lithuania from taking full control of its own energy supply system.’

Obviously, all this is a real disaster for Russian propaganda, especially since after the Baltic decision Kaliningrad region of Russia finds itself in a real energy isolation - and this is a direct result of the Russian-Ukrainian war, because in a normal political situation the Baltic states would certainly have coordinated with Moscow the energy needs of Kaliningrad region. And now - it's the other way round!

‘The fact that the Baltic States decided to disconnect completely from the energy system of Kaliningrad region precisely because Russia attacked Ukraine and threatened other states is even more painful for Russia. As a result, Kaliningrad region finds itself in a kind of energy isolation - like an island, which now has to cope with such problems as frequency, lack or excess of electricity on its own,' says Roman Melnik, a columnist for the Latvian LA.LV portal.

Naturally, Baltic consumers from Russia have been frightened for several weeks now with a real energy crisis, humanitarian problems and lack of food. Everything will become more expensive, there will be no light, and there will be further instability. State leaders have already had to intervene.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics emphasised at a special press conference after a meeting with Prime Minister Evika Silina: ‘The Baltic States are as prepared as possible. However, we cannot rule out any provocations, so the security services of both Latvia and other countries are on high alert, as well as other institutions, especially those responsible for electricity supply.’ But no one in Latvia or in the other Baltic states can rule out hybrid attacks.

This situation reminds me of the 90s, when the Baltic States were restoring their independence - and the propaganda was constantly trying to scare them, explaining that they would be lost ‘alone’, without the Soviet Union. A real economic blockade was even organised for Lithuania, as if Moscow did not consider it a ‘real’ Union republic.

And I remembered for good how the then head of the Soviet government Nikolai Ryzhkov, who ended his long and shameful political career by supporting Putin's war against Ukraine, was explaining to me in the Kremlin that the blockade was a good thing, letting the Lithuanians realise how to live outside the Soviet Union. And so many years have passed, it would seem, and Russia is still clinging to any connection between the former Soviet republics and Moscow - gas pipelines, oil pipelines, the energy system. And this, as we can see from Russia's war against Ukraine, is not a phantom pain at all, but a desire to restore the lost empire at any cost.

Vitaly Portnikov, Radio Svaboda

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