FT: Trump Offers Putin Bad And Very Bad Options To Choose From

The head of the Kremlin risks becoming a loser.

The telephone conversation between US President Donald Trump and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has greatly alarmed Europe, which fears a repeat of the Munich Agreement of 1938. However, in reality, the master of the Kremlin is faced with a difficult choice, writes Lawrence Freedman, a leading specialist in British strategic studies and an emeritus professor at King's College London, in an opinion piece for the Financial Times.

He noted that until now the Americans have not demanded that Ukraine permanently abandon the territories occupied by the Russians, much less give Russia even more territory. There have been no demands from the US to disarm Ukrainian troops or change the constitution to please Moscow.

“Putin is undoubtedly glad that Trump treats him with respect. But without fulfilling these demands, he will not achieve his military goals,” the analyst notes.

While Putin will likely be allowed to keep a large chunk of Ukrainian land under Moscow's control, there remains the prospect that Ukraine will rebuild its strength with Western support and return to the fight later, Friedman writes. This is in addition to the fact that Russia will now have to spend huge amounts of money to protect and support the occupied territory, much of which has been completely destroyed by the fighting.

The analyst sees no reason to assume that Trump is interested in satisfying Putin's maximalist demands. And with memories of the ignominious flight of Americans from Afghanistan in August 2021 still fresh, there are limits to how much Trump can force Kyiv to make concessions.

And this is despite the fact that Putin himself is not in a particularly strong negotiating position. The Russian army has been advancing continuously since the fall of 2023, but the territorial gains during this time have been extremely limited and do not even come close to Moscow's original goals. And the losses are huge. In addition, part of Russia itself is now controlled by Ukrainian troops.

The air terror campaign against the Ukrainian energy sector has failed for the second time. But Ukrainian drones are consistently destroying Russian oil infrastructure. And this is against the backdrop of other economic problems in the Russian Federation, the analyst notes.

“Putin has to decide whether he is prepared to sacrifice some of his maximalist demands. Perhaps he could agree to a ceasefire, but only on the condition of ... some rapid easing of sanctions. Perhaps he could recognize Ukraine’s membership in the EU. But if Ukraine remains independent and armed, he will fail. If Putin is ultimately blamed for the failure of this big push for peace, he may find that even Trump is willing to step up support for Kyiv and impose additional sanctions on Russia,” Friedman concludes.

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