Lukashenka's Nightmare May Come True

The dilemma arose unexpectedly.

Political analyst and historian Alexander Friedman wrote about the dilemma that suddenly arose for Aliaksandr Lukashenka.

“The fact that official Minsk does not comment on the fateful events around Ukraine is explained by the dilemma that Aliaksandr Lukashenka now faces.

On the one hand, if the war ends, the Belarusian leadership “will most likely have to deal with its southern neighbor Ukraine, which will be politically and economically oriented toward the United States and Europe, and will also take revenge on the Lukashenka regime in various forms for complicity in the war.”

“A strong democratic Ukraine will become a permanent threat to the dictatorship in Belarus,” writes Alexander Friedman.

At the same time, he notes that any participation of official Minsk in peace negotiations "is not even close now," so "the Belarusian authorities have put this topic out of the equation."

On the other hand, the Belarusian regime also has no preconditions for a radical improvement in relations with the US and the EU, and after the end of the war, “Lukashenka risks finding himself one-to-one with the still revanchist Russia.” Moreover, with Russia, which has suffered “a strategic defeat and is ready for the most radical steps.”

Alexander Udafovich, UDF

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