Lukashenka Starts Dangerous Game With Import Of Labor Force From Pakistan

The delivery of 150 thousand Pakistanis to Belarus may turn against the dictator himself.

Lukashenka has either completely lost his political sense or is deliberately provoking the Belarusians. The announced plan to import 100-150 thousand workers from Pakistan may turn against the initiator himself. Lukashenka himself understands the risks, and he speaks about them quite carefully after negotiations with Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif.

On April 10, Shahbaz Sharif and his entire family met with the Lukashenka family at an informal stop. Judging by the official photo report, this event can be correctly called “the Sharif clan visiting the Lukashenka clan.”

BGmedia talked about the current visit of the Pakistani Prime Minister with historian and political observer Alexander Friedman.

— Lukashenka and Shahbaz Sharif met in a family circle on April 10. Judging by the photo, the two clan leaders met to resolve family (or business) problems.

— Lukashenka dragged his middle son (the youngest regular) to the meeting, which looks extremely unusual. And the fact that Shahbaz Sharif came with the entire clan, including his brother, shows the importance of this visit for the Pakistani side. In fact, we are seeing close friendly relations that have been established between them: Lukashenka does not accept everyone at this level, and the participation of his middle son Dzmitry in the meeting is something extraordinary. By the way, an interesting question: where was the eldest son Viktar?

Lukashenka and Sharif approved the readmission agreement. It seems that the main topic of this visit is 100-150 thousand Pakistanis who are planned to be delivered to Belarus (if it comes to that).

Lukashenka's interest in Pakistan is understandable: it is a market, it is a nuclear power. Another question is, against the background of such relations with Pakistan, how will relations with India develop? By betting on deepening relations with Pakistan, Lukashenka risks damaging relations with India. But it seems that Minsk has made a conscious choice in favor of Pakistan.

Lukashenka has acknowledged the problem of labor shortage in the country. By betting on labor from Pakistan, Minsk wants to get a qualified labor force, at least more qualified than Zimbabwe and Equatorial Guinea could supply.

But we are talking about a huge number of people: not 10-20 thousand people, but 100-150 thousand. Lukashenka has acknowledged that he does not have enough labor force, that he cannot solve the problem using internal resources, and that he cannot even solve the issue using migrants from other post-Soviet countries.

— But how will the movement of 150 thousand Pakistani residents — inhabitants of another world, roughly speaking — be perceived in Belarus?

— The export of labor resources is an important source of income for Pakistan: approximately 11 million labor migrants from Pakistan work all over the world. 150 thousand people for Pakistan is a drop in the ocean. This is significantly less than in Saudi Arabia (more than two million), the UAE (about one and a half million) or the USA (more than 600,000), but significantly more than, say, in Norway (about 45,000). This is the level of Germany, where, according to various estimates, from 120,000 to 150,000 Pakistani citizens live and work. In Belarus, labor migrants can potentially earn more than in Pakistan.

But for me, several points are completely obvious.

Belarus will not become a priority destination for Pakistanis — the priority for them is the West. The second priority is the countries of Southeast Asia (Singapore, for example). Russia is also a more attractive destination because you can earn more there than in Belarus. This means that the best and most qualified workers will not go to Belarus.

Moreover, people from Pakistan will move to Belarus to try to break into the West from there. I believe that the news about Pakistanis did not please, and will not please, Belarus's Western neighbors.

In addition to everything, Belarus is not an open country where foreigners come and stay. Belarus is mostly homogeneous (although there are national and religious minorities), it has no experience of accepting such a large number of foreigners. Okay, they have gotten used to foreign students, although earlier there were conflicts related to students from Turkmenistan, students from Africa. Everyday racism is present in Belarus, and the country has virtually no experience in intercultural communication.

A really relevant question: is Belarusian society ready to accept people with different traditions, with a different culture, a different language, the question of the role of Islam, which is professed in Pakistan, arises. Yes, Lukashenka boasts that he has good relations with the Islamic world. He may have good relations, but for Belarusians it is a foreign world. And again: 150 thousand is a whole city the size of Barysau.

And finally, Pakistan cannot be called a stable state. The history of Pakistan is a history of military coups, a history of supporting terrorist movements like the Taliban, a history of ties with Al-Qaeda. In addition, Pakistan has enough refugees from Afghanistan, I believe that refugees will come from Pakistan, including from Afghanistan.

Belarus is not the first and not the last country to attract foreign labor. But socialist countries like the GDR had a similar experience: they attracted labor from Mozambique or Vietnam. Western countries also have such experience: West Germany attracted labor from Turkey, Italy and other countries. Their experience shows that most often young men come to work, who start families, which means their families will come to Belarus. For this, the appropriate infrastructure must be created. Does Belarus have the infrastructure to provide for people with different traditions, with a different culture, with a different lifestyle and behavior?

Although Lukashenka emphasizes the level of tolerance in Belarusian society in every possible way, I would not overestimate his willingness to accept 150 thousand Pakistanis. Belarusian society under Lukashenka is in many ways a closed society. Belarus has never had a large number of illegal migrants who would remain in the country, or representatives of other cultures in general. Let's remember the migration crisis of 2021, when a small number of people from Syria, Iraq, etc. appeared in Minsk and other cities. Belarusians openly expressed discontent and misunderstanding.

Lukashenka’s desire to solve economic problems at the expense of Pakistanis is understandable. But the question is: is Belarusian society ready for this? I believe that Belarusian society is not ready. Therefore, if the plans are implemented, Belarusian society can present many surprises: outbreaks of racism, conflicts, and so on are possible. Lukashenka has started a very dangerous game, but apparently there are simply no other alternatives.

Everyone is talking about the outflow of personnel to the West. But many Belarusians, including the young and ambitious, are fleeing to Russia. It seems that Lukashenka really has no choice — otherwise, an economic collapse could happen. And the demographic situation in Belarus, to put it mildly, does not inspire optimism.

— The construction of the Great Stone industrial park was accompanied by talk of attracting 100 thousand Chinese. Indeed, the Chinese were building the infamous pulp and paper mill in Svetlahorsk, but fled without even putting it into operation. So the promised 100 thousand Chinese are still “coming”. Could the story of importing 150 thousand Pakistanis, like a fog, hide other, less attractive dealings of Lukashenka and Sharif?

— The economic situation is such that this looks like a reasonable and necessary measure. But from a political point of view, this is an extremely risky undertaking for Lukashenka. I think this topic will be actively discussed and will cause discontent and misunderstanding in society. This measure will not delight even Lukashenka's supporters. 150 thousand Pakistanis are comparable to the population of Barysau. It is one thing when people come who are close in mentality, language, culture, but when people from another culture, with other traditions and other views of the world come, it could be dangerous. Especially since they will come to take jobs from the Belarusians themselves. The reaction of the Belarusians is not difficult to predict.

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