‘Such Scenario Greatly Frightens Lukashenka’

Ukraine is ready to launch a preemptive strike if the West-2025 exercises turn into a provocation.

The joint Russian-Belarusian Zapad-2025 exercises will take place in mid-September this year. Movements of Russian troops across the territory of Belarus are already being observed.

What is the danger of these exercises? What goals does dictator Putin pursue? The Charter97.org website spoke about this with Maksym Pleshko, PhD in Philosophy and head of the Ukrainian Center for Belarusian Communications:

— An interview with our Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky was recently published, where he said that the Ukrainian Armed Forces were closely monitoring the situation. Syrsky recalled that any such exercises are a very convenient pretext for forming a strike group with the aim of carrying out an attack or provocation. On the other hand, we in Ukraine are absolutely calm about this. It is now impossible to create a strike group that would be something unexpected for us. The Ukrainian-Belarusian border is a well-fortified area. There are mainly forests and rivers there. There are some roads, but they have long been mined, and powerful fortified areas have been created.

If hypothetically they want to carry out a provocation or attack on Ukraine from that side, then several Ukrainian batteries and hidden units will immediately appear there, which will quickly destroy the columns of the occupiers' equipment. The column can even go 10-15 kilometers deep, just into a trap, and then it will be burned. In this regard, Ukraine is not afraid of anything and nothing will surprise you.

— Should the Armed Forces of Ukraine launch a preemptive strike on the territory of Belarus if this strike group of the Russian Federation is still created?

— Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly assured that the situation of 2022 will not be repeated. Let me remind you that then Russian troops entered from Belarus and missiles were flying. Ukraine wiped away the blood, but did not respond with strikes on Belarus. As history has shown, this was the right strategy. Because we avoided drawing the Belarusian state and the Belarusian regime into the war.

We clearly understand that Lukashenka and the Belarusian military-industrial complex work for the Russian defense industry. But there was no direct involvement of the Belarusian army, and this is really good for both Ukrainians and Belarusians, and for relations between peoples, because it would have been simply impossible to heal them later. Many decades would have passed.

But if this had happened now, for example, aggression as a result of such exercises, Ukraine would have responded very quickly. This response would have been even before crossing the Ukrainian border. If you look at the map, the southern ridge of Belarusian cities, including infrastructure, railways, is very close to the Ukrainian border. While the Ukrainian regional centers are more than 100 kilometers from the border. For example, the same pride and foundation of the Belarusian economy, the Mazyr Oil Refinery, is within reach even for Ukrainian artillery. You don’t need to cross the border for this. I'm not even talking about long-range drones. If such a provocation is carried out towards Ukraine, we will give a tough response.

There are entire detachments of Belarusian volunteers in the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces who are just waiting for the command to enter Belarus. This scenario scares dictator Lukashenka the most. Therefore, for him, another attack by the Russian army from Belarus on Ukraine would be like a knife in the back from Putin. Putin does not want this either, because he is satisfied with the “stability” in Belarus.

— Now more and more information is appearing that Putin is preparing an invasion of NATO countries in the next few years. In particular, it is said that it may take place in the Suwałki Gap. Could the West-2025 exercises be preparation for this invasion, or is this just an attempt to divert attention from the war in Ukraine?

— Russian propagandists openly talk about the Suwałki Gap, about Lithuania, about Poland. I don't understand whether these countries are capable of punching Putin in the teeth, like Ukraine? Are they capable of hitting Moscow and St. Petersburg? I doubt it, although I'll be glad to be wrong. Putin may test NATO's fifth article on the Baltic states as a result of these exercises.

Putin has a hard time getting every meter of Ukrainian territory in terms of money and human resources. And here are new states that don't have this experience of war and don't know how to respond in this way. Today, the Ukrainian and Russian armies are the two armies on the planet that fully know what a full-scale modern war with the use of modern technology is. I think they can test NATO's fifth article. These exercises may become an opportunity for Putin to somehow destabilize the situation, raise the stakes.

— What interests does Lukashenka pursue by providing Belarusian territory for such maneuvers?

— Strategy #1 for Lukashenka is to retain power. For him, as for Putin, it is a matter of life and death. Obviously, the situation related to freezing the war, with stabilization of the situation in the region will be to his advantage. These exercises, of course, again tie him back to Putin's military plan. But as long as Putin's regime holds on, Lukashenka's regime holds on too. They are connected by blood, they are connected by repressions, they are connected by common crimes. Therefore, they will stick together.

On the other hand, we must also not forget that any exercises mean training. The military is learning there. And the Belarusian army is also learning. They will be using drones, practicing assault actions, and so on. And this is also a factor.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]