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Russia On The Brink Of Crisis: U.S. Tariffs Deplete Putin’s National Wealth Fund

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Russia On The Brink Of Crisis: U.S. Tariffs Deplete Putin’s National Wealth Fund

Russia is facing serious turmoil.

The collapse in oil prices, triggered by the U.S. tariff war, has had a devastating impact on the oil industry and, as a result, on Russia’s financial system. The Russian Ministry of Finance is once again forced to dip into the National Wealth Fund (NWF).

This was reported by The Moscow Times.

The introduction of U.S. tariffs has led to a decline in global demand for oil, resulting in a drop in prices. For Russia, whose budget heavily depends on oil and gas revenues, this situation has become critical.

According to the Ministry of Economic Development, in March 2025, the average price for Russian Urals crude oil stood at $58.99 per barrel, significantly below the budgeted price of $69.7.

The decline in oil prices, combined with a reduction in production volumes, has led to a drop in Russia’s oil and gas revenues. In March 2025, these revenues fell by 17%, and by the end of the first quarter, they had declined by 10%.

The Russian government is being forced to compensate for budget losses. From April 7 to May 12, the Ministry of Finance plans to sell foreign currency from the NWF at a rate of 1.6 billion rubles per day, totaling 35.9 billion rubles. The NWF, which previously served as Russia’s financial safety net, has shrunk significantly due to the war against Ukraine and sanctions.

As of March 2025, the fund’s liquid assets have decreased by about two-thirds, reaching $37.5 billion.

The continued sell-off of NWF assets to support the budget could lead to its complete depletion, threatening the financial stability of the country.

Paradoxically, despite declining oil revenues, the Russian ruble has strengthened by 26% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year.

However, this appreciation has had a negative impact on the budget, as oil and gas export revenues are denominated in foreign currency and decrease when converted into rubles. As a result, the budget deficit is widening, forcing the government to increase borrowing or use up remaining reserves.

The U.S. tariffs imposed by the Trump administration and the subsequent decline in oil prices have had a destructive effect on the Russian economy.

The decline in oil and gas revenues, the depletion of the NWF, and the need for increased borrowing present serious challenges to the financial stability of the aggressor state.

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