Do Russians Really Want Peace?

The rhetoric of the White House has changed significantly.

Danish military analyst Anders Nielsen on Trump and peace negotiations. Here’s a summary of the key points:

The White House’s rhetoric has undergone a significant shift: while Trump previously claimed that peace would be achieved very quickly, now it is more commonly promised within a year. However, amidst discussions about timelines, a less noticeable but crucial change in rhetoric has occurred: whereas Americans previously spoke of "peace," they now more frequently mention a "ceasefire." A peace treaty and a ceasefire are very different concepts that need further clarification.

A peace treaty defines the conditions under which warring parties will exist after the end of a war. A ceasefire, on the other hand, is a temporary measure taken for specific purposes.

Currently, in the Russia-Ukraine war, there is, to some extent, a ceasefire concerning energy infrastructure for a period of 30 days. However, this does not mean that strikes have stopped—only that their targets have changed. Moreover, it appears that the Russians are preparing for a new offensive, increasing the number of attacks on the front. Another ceasefire agreement—regarding the naval conflict—has not yet come into effect, as the Russians have demanded additional conditions, such as the partial lifting of sanctions.

There have already been ceasefires in this war, such as attempts to establish humanitarian corridors for civilians from besieged Mariupol, many of which were violated by Russia. However, these ceasefires were undertaken for very specific purposes and were not precursors to a peace treaty.

A ceasefire preceding a peace treaty is usually aimed at building trust. Warring countries distrust each other so deeply that they always doubt whether their enemy will actually uphold peace agreements, making them reluctant to compromise. A ceasefire can help restore some level of trust. Additionally, it allows political leadership to step back from constantly reacting to an unpredictable battlefield and instead focus on negotiating the terms of peace.

It is clear that the current "ceasefires" do not meet these conditions necessary for achieving peace. The moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure benefits the Russians more—Ukraine has refrained from striking Russia’s fuel infrastructure, which was a key part of its strategy to win the war. Ukraine agreed to this measure due to its need to maintain U.S. military assistance.

At the same time, this agreement has not fostered any trust, nor has it allowed politicians to shift their focus from immediate military concerns. Instead, the Russians have simply redirected their attacks to other civilian targets—residential buildings and hospitals—aiming to further pressure the civilian population and force Ukraine into capitulation.

If the Russians genuinely wanted substantive negotiations, they would act in the opposite manner—halting long-range strikes on civilian infrastructure and easing pressure on the front to build even a minimal level of trust. Naturally, under the current conditions, no meaningful peace negotiations can take place.

In this context, it is worth noting that the current approach of the Americans is likely prolonging the war and has proven counterproductive.

Yigal Levin, Facebook

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