Yevgeny Magda: A Missile Strike Against A NATO Country May Be Launched From The Territory Of Belarus

The Alliance must respond.

Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that Russia is "preparing something in Belarus under the guise of military exercises" this summer.

What exactly did the Ukrainian president mean? About it the site Charter97.org talked to the head of the Ukrainian Institute of World Politics Evgeny Magda:

- I believe that this is Vladimir Zelensky's attempt to attract the attention of NATO countries to the situation in the Baltic-Black Sea region. I have my own opinion on this matter, which differs from the President's. The fact is that the issue of the possible use of exercises "West" as a cover for aggression against the EU and NATO countries has been raised not for the first year - it has been relevant since 2017 and remains a constant topic of discussion. Remember Weischnoria and all that?"

I think that this is more of a geopolitical statement, the purpose of which is to show that there are certain challenges we face, and therefore the countries of the Baltic-Black Sea region should be more mobilized, if I may say so. It seems to me that Poland and the Baltic States are already on the alert in this respect.

Another issue is that if NATO does not have a clear vision of how to act in the event of an attack on the Suvalki corridor, then there is a legitimate question about the Alliance's ability to effectively confront Russia at all. It may sound a bit harsh, but the topic has been discussed for so long, and the Alliance, which unites more than a billion people and is the largest military-political bloc in the world, should finally start responding accordingly.

I suppose that in today's world it is very difficult to concentrate enough troops to carry out a full-fledged invasion. But the use of hybrid methods, a combination of military-political methods and information influence, is quite realistic in this situation. It is important to take this into account.

The end of summer and the beginning of fall will be traditionally alarming. I would like to remind one point, which, in my opinion, is often overlooked, especially in Ukraine. For example, the West exercise in 2021 did not lead to a direct invasion of Ukraine. At that time there was a migration crisis - it served as a kind of smoke screen. And the direct invasion was facilitated by the exercise "Union Decisiveness", which was announced by Lukashenko in January 2022.

- In 2021 there was a migration crisis, and now there is information that Lukashenko plans to invite 150 thousand Pakistanis to Belarus.

- If we take the context of inviting Pakistanis, then in the light of recent developments in relations between India and Pakistan, the likelihood of such a scenario has weakened. The context has changed, and the possibility of moving such a number of Pakistanis to Belarus does not look too realistic now.

- If we talk about hybrid methods, what exactly can happen during the exercises?

- For example, from the territory of Belarus there can be a missile attack on one of the NATO countries or seizure of a part of their territory, Poland or Lithuania in the first place. And it could be done by servicemen not in Russian uniform, but in Belarusian uniform.

- This would be a very interesting development. Russia and Belarus are already bound by a collective defense treaty, and how NATO countries will react to this is a good question. The answer will probably become clear only after the NATO summit in The Hague. At the moment it is difficult to talk about it.

- How will Lukashenko act?

- Lukashenko's regime is now starting the "overseas tango" with the United States. Otherwise, he simply would not have let Jury Zenkovich go. I think Lukashenko is now trying to reduce his dependence on Russia with his maneuvers and show that he is not so pro-Kremlin.

I don't know how much he will be believed, but such attempts are obvious.

You can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL97116022020000000216711123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]