SBU Major General: Lukashenko's Regime Will Go To Tatters
5- 2.05.2025, 19:38
- 20,004
Ukraine is ready for the fact that the West-2025 exercise may turn into a provocation.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that Russia may "prepare something in Belarus under the guise of military exercises" this summer.
Could Moscow use military exercises to provoke?
About this, Charter97.org talked to SBU Major General in Reserve Viktor Yagun.
-I don't know how much Russia has the strength to fight on two or three fronts, I doubt it. But joint exercises cannot be disregarded and controlled. All accumulations of forces by Russia always end up in some kind of provocation. We have to look at what kind of troops they are, how much this grouping can be used for some provocations. If it is less than 100,000, I do not think they will be active in any direction.
As a rule, all these exercises over the past three years have been used primarily to simply focus attention on them. So that our troops don't leave the border, stay there all the time. And everything else is more aimed at the public.
- If we talk about possible provocations, what concrete actions can Lukashenko take, given his growing dependence on the Kremlin?
As an auxiliary force, as a second echelon - perhaps. All he can do is to continue terrorizing Europe with migrants. There may be some provocations against individuals, former citizens of Belarus, who oppose him.
But in fact, Lukashenko is trying to find some bridges, some contacts to agree with Europe that the sanctions against Russia and Belarus should be separated, and the process of lifting sanctions against his regime should begin. He realizes that if something happens in Russia, and Belarus is tied to Russia very strongly, it will all collapse. And together Putin's regime and his regime will go into tatters.
- What could be the response to possible provocations from Ukraine. How can events develop for Lukashenko's regime in case of escalation?
- Ukraine is ready for any events. There are appropriate forces, and reinforcements have also been created. Their army will not be able to attack in this direction, as the Kremlin wants. They will definitely not be able to march in columns. Neither Russia, nor Belarus have the same war and capabilities now. If they march in columns again, and there is no wide front there, they will simply be burned and everything will be over. Therefore, most likely, this is just a game of nerves.
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