Zelensky And Trump's Resource Deal Has Spooked Russian Elites

The Kremlin panicked.

A natural resources development agreement that the U.S. and Ukraine reached after two months of tense negotiations has caused nervousness in Moscow.

According to The Washington Post, members of Russia's elite fear a rapprochement between Vladimir Zelensky and Donald Trump and believe the Kremlin may miss the chance to strike a deal on Ukraine on favorable terms.

President Vladimir Putin is under increasing pressure to at least appear willing to make concessions, a Russian official told WaPo on condition of anonymity. Otherwise, Russia faces a new package of U.S. sanctions that Senator Lindsey Graham has drafted. They will be a "serious blow," as the budget deficit is already growing, the source told WaPo.

Contrary to the bravado of officials who claim that Russia has successfully coped with sanctions, concerns about the state of the economy are playing an increasingly significant role, the official emphasized. "It is impossible to build an economy solely on a mobilization model," he says.

The pace of economic growth in Russia has already slowed sharply: in the first quarter of 2025, GDP added only 1.7% after 4.5% a quarter earlier and 4.1% overall last year. Inflation is hovering above 10% despite the Central Bank's record rate, industries outside the military-industrial complex have slipped into recession, and falling oil prices have dropped commodity revenues by almost 20%. The Finance Ministry now predicts its deficit will be the highest since the pandemic - 3.8 trillion rubles instead of the original plan of 1.2 trillion.

The "Peace Party" in the Kremlin insists that Putin accept Trump's terms - with a freeze on war along the front lines in exchange for recognition of Crimea and lifting of sanctions, WaPo writes. "Hawks," on the other hand, still want to go to war no matter what.

The U.S.-Ukraine deal, while containing no security guarantees for Kiev, "worsens the situation for Russia," notes Sergei Markov, a political scientist close to the Kremlin: "The key cause of tension between Trump and Zelensky has been eliminated.

Although future cooperation between Washington and Kiev is not clearly spelled out in the agreement, at least symbolically, "the United States assumes certain obligations to defend Ukraine, since it now owns Ukraine," Markov said.

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