"Putin Has Big Problems Brewing In Russia Itself."

This could have a devastating effect on the Russian economy.

Republican Lindsey Graham said most U.S. senators support the bill for "crushing" sanctions against Russia and buyers of its oil and gas.

How powerful a tool is this bill in Trump's arsenal? The website Charter97.org spoke with Ukrainian diplomat and political scientist, Director of the Center for Defense Strategies Alexander Hara:

- Senator Lindsey Graham is a fairly consistent supporter of Ukraine and a proponent of a tougher line toward Putin. No wonder he's talking about it. Naturally, we would like to see American lawmakers vote in favor of this bill. Whether it will be implemented is another question. In the United States system, the head of the executive branch has full authority to use some tools against Russia or other players, or not to use them. So the mere fact that the Senate votes in favor of such a bill will not yet mean that Donald Trump will want to implement it. It seems to me that this administration has no desire to talk to Russia from a position of strength.

We've seen quite a few examples of the current administration avoiding even minimally critical rhetoric against Putin: neither calling the Russian invasion aggression nor heavily blaming Putin himself. Though lately Trump has gotten annoyed and talked about how Putin may be leading him around by the nose. But so far we haven't seen any action. I wonder how the parameters of approaches towards Ukraine and Russia will change, given the latest news that the United States is withdrawing from the peace process. The Americans talking to us, the Americans talking to the Russians about Ukraine - will they continue the parallel track of resetting relations between the United States and Russia?

I don't know yet how to assess the American withdrawal from the negotiation process. On the one hand, it is good for Ukraine that the US will not pressure the Ukrainians and try to impose a peaceful solution, which is essentially a surrender. And on the other hand, if they leave the peace process aside, and in fact are not bound by any promises or any logic, the U.S. will reset relations, lift sanctions on Russia. This of course this will have a negative impact on Ukraine, on European security.

- The publication Bloomberg just yesterday wrote, что https://charter97.org/en/news/2025/5/1/639039/, and Russia is at the center of the blow. How has the drop in oil prices hit the Russian Federation, and is Putin worried about it?"

- Overall, the issue of sanctions on Russian energy is key, because Russia can only continue this war because Russia can only continue to sell its oil - primarily oil above $50 a barrel. Now, of course, there are positive trends due to the tariffs that America has imposed against various countries around the world. Investors' expectations have decreased in terms of economic development, so oil prices have started to fall. Well, plus the decision of Saudi Arabia to increase oil production is also a positive thing.

I have seen forecasts by J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs that the price will be 63-68 dollars by the end of the year - this is for the Brent brand, for American oil. And Russian oil, accordingly, is sold at a discount to $18. If the price falls below 50 dollars for Urals, it means that Russia will actually eat through the accumulated security cushion at an accelerated pace. Naturally, Putin will then think that he has to stop fighting somehow, because not only can he not continue the war, but he will have big problems in Russia itself. So such sanctions would be very, very helpful.

- French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said the EU wants to along with the United States to agree on a "smashing" package of sanctions against Russia. What would be gained by the EU joining the US sanctions?"

- Initially, starting back in 2014, Barack Obama's position was to coordinate sanctions policy with the Europeans and thus pressure Putin to change his behavior. But then Barack Obama didn't go for any serious sanctions. They were in fact almost decorative.

The first serious sanctions were imposed after the terrorist act of the Russian Federation, when the Malaysian Boeing MH17 was shot down. Accordingly, already in Joseph Biden's cadence there was the same approach, there were agreed sanctions.

It is perfectly clear, if we look even before 2014, even before these sanctions, that the trade turnover between the United States and the Russian Federation was by and large minuscule. The Russians made their main money in the European market. And that's why it was important for the Biden administration that these sanctions be synchronized. That is, roughly speaking, to prohibit access to European resources for the Russian Federation. But U.S. sanctions are important as so-called secondary sanctions. That is, third countries, not of the European Union, not of the democratic bloc, were afraid of trade with Russia, of supplying arms and dual-use goods there, because these secondary sanctions could be applied to them. This is based on the fact that the dollar is a global currency. And where there are dollar transactions, the Americans can do quite a bit of hurting.

If the Americans and Europeans now agree to continue this approach. Plus there will still be a desire to impose tough sanctions on Russia. This could have a devastating effect on the Russian economy.

Whether Trump will agree, I don't know, because, first of all, as I said, there is a parallel track in improving relations with Russia. And he is extremely important to Trump for various reasons. And the second thing is that the Americans can link any agreement with the Europeans to their desire to rewrite trade agreements. That's actually why they started the tariff war. And theoretically, the Americans can say: okay, we are ready to sign up for these sanctions, but then you make concessions to us in trade relations. Therefore, it is difficult to predict how it will look like with Trump.

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