"Lukashenko's Gonna Get Hurt."

Experts explained why Putin needs a drone factory in Belarus.

Talking to Alexander Lukashenko in Volgograd on April 29, Vladimir Putin publicly offered to build a drone factory in Belarus. What are the interests of Moscow and Minsk?

"We are ready to already lay the plant together with your specialists and the relevant laboratory," said the Russian leader.

The udf website asked experts: why does Russia need a plant in Belarus and what consequences will its construction have for our country?

"Lukashenko such actions will still come out sideways"

Director of the Ukrainian Institute of World Politics Evgeny Magda in a commentary to UDF noted that Moscow, but not Minsk, will benefit from the construction of a drone factory in Belarus.

"First of all, the construction of the plant further drags Belarus into the war against Ukraine and worsens Lukashenko's image in the West," Magda said.

He pointed out that one of the main Russian drone production facilities is located in faraway Elabuga (Tatarstan). There they produce a Russian version of Iran's Shahed 136 UAV called Geran-2 for use in the military aggression against Ukraine. The enterprise survived a Ukrainian attack about a year ago.

"So, secondly, building a factory in Belarus reduces the transportation shoulder for delivering drones to the front line," Magda noted.

But there is a more important reason.

"Thirdly, Russia counts on being able to secure its drone production from possible Ukrainian strikes. Official Kiev is unlikely to launch strikes on Belarusian territory," Magda believes.

There is certainly logic in the construction of a factory in Belarus for Moscow for the reasons mentioned above. But why does Lukashenko need it?

"Let me remind you that he has consistently defended the position that he is ready to do anything as long as the Belarusians themselves are not directly involved in hostilities. But I think that Lukashenko will be hurt by such actions, even if not today. In any case, it is obvious that the construction of the Russian factory for the production of drones will not improve Ukrainian-Belarusian relations, but will only create new tension. But this is Lukashenko's choice and he has to live with it," Magda said.

"Putin can achieve several goals at once with one action"

Politologist Anatoly Kotov noted that he sees several reasons for Putin's proposal.

"Let's start with the most obvious one. Lukashenko's regime needs money, and he is ready to get it for anything. Import substitution, a second nuclear power plant, an allied airplane. It doesn't matter what kind of project. That's why Lukashenko can be offered the construction of a drone factory," Kotov believes.

On the other hand, Putin "can achieve several goals at once with one action."

"The construction of a drone factory finally binds Lukashenko's regime to war, because it is obvious who will be bombed by drones - Ukraine. At the same time, Kiev will be faced with a choice: to destroy the plant or not. If yes, which is absolutely logical, Belarus will be completely drawn into the war. Destruction of the plant will be an excuse to use the territory of Belarus for new attacks on Ukraine. Lukashenko will also be forced to fight and no peace initiatives will save him," Kotov believes.

He added:

"If Ukraine does not touch the plant, Putin will get weapons production near the front line, but under an umbrella. After all, all other Russian factories are already under attack. So Lukashenko, who is completely financially dependent on Russia, will simply be used - either to provoke Ukraine or to set up military production."

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