Russia Is Preparing For A Long War With The Help Of Lukashenko's Regime

Belarusian factories are a legitimate target for the WSU.

Despite the difficult economic situation, the Kremlin continues to invest billions in the defense complex, strengthening the production of missiles, drones and other equipment for terror against Ukraine. The entire infrastructure of the aggressor works to supply the army. It is not only about the current conduct of hostilities, but also about preparations for possible future attacks on NATO countries.

Western intelligence reports say the Kremlin is reforming its defense system and studying the likelihood of a military invasion of one or more Alliance countries. In parallel, the Russians are scaling up the production of missiles, including cruise missiles, and improving drones.

Documents obtained by the Dallas intelligence company show that Russia plans to produce 633 Kh-101 missiles in 2025 and at least 223 more in 2026. Production cycles have already been contracted through early 2026.

The key role is played by the Tactical Missile Armament Corporation (KTRV), 100% owned by Rosimushchestvo. It produces Kalibr, Kh-101, Kh-38 and other missiles. The head of the KTRV board of directors is Boris Gryzlov, the current ambassador of the Russian Federation to Belarus and Putin's closest associate, which presumably ensures direct and simplified coordination between the Russian and Belarusian military-industrial complexes, and the CEO is Boris Obnosov, Russia's former representative to the United Nations.

The firm TRV-Engineering, registered in Korolev, is ordered by Obnosov to conduct procurement for the entire holding. Formally it is private, but in fact it is a pocket structure of the authorities. The director is Mikhail Kolesnikov, who was previously detained on suspicion of embezzling 40 million rubles.

"TRV-engineering" is owned by Taganrog-based Zvezda-Strela, 49% of which is owned by KTRV and 40% by Teploservis, a company owned by Obnosov's daughter, makeup artist Olga Zorikova. This confirms the involvement of Putin's inner circle in weapons production.

The company is involved in supplying components, logistics and circumventing sanctions. It plays a key role in the production of UMPK - planning modules for aerial bombs (KABs). It imports components necessary for production through Chinese firms and front companies. Belarus is also helping it by organizing its own supply schemes.

Electronics problems and the role of Belarus

The most vulnerable point of Russia's military-industrial complex is electronic components. Western parts are still used in missiles, including those from the US, Japan and the EU. Their markings are sometimes erased to disguise them. Import substitution works only partially.

An example - altimeters for the X-101, providing control of the missile in flight. They are manufactured by UPKB "Detal", and TRV-engineering is in charge of procurement. The microcircuits for these altemeters come from the Belarusian plant Integral in Minsk. This makes Belarus not just an indirect participant, but a direct accomplice in the production of weapons used to shell Ukrainian cities.

The Belarusian enterprise participates in state contracts for the supply of components intended exclusively for the needs of the Russian military-industrial complex. In particular, the contract #2225187923201412208226001 explicitly states that Integral's products are used for Kh-101 missiles. Moreover, Belarus has become an important link in the logistics supply chain for the Russian defense industry, ensuring both production and circumvention of sanctions. Components, including dual-use products, are re-exported through Belarus using intermediary companies in third countries. Such schemes allow formally avoiding direct violations of the sanctions regime, but actually serve the needs of the Russian military-industrial complex.

Thus, Belarus de facto participates in the armed aggression against Ukraine, and its enterprises, such as VAT Integral, become legitimate military targets. It is particularly revealing that such supplies take place under the direct patronage of the head of the State Military-Industrial Committee of Belarus Dmitry Pantus, as well as with the participation of former Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko, who oversees the implementation of defense contracts with the Russian Federation. These officials play a key role in coordinating Belarusian participation in the Russian military-industrial complex, including sanctions circumvention and supply logistics.

But the process is vulnerable: strikes on factories, supply disruptions, or sanctions against suppliers can disrupt the fulfillment of the state defense order. Kazakhstan's refusal to supply tantalum, billing problems, or destruction of hubs have previously caused disruptions.

The Russian Federation is preparing for a protracted war and possibly expanding aggression beyond Ukraine. The key element remains missiles, the production of which is increasing. Belarus' participation in these processes strengthens the international responsibility of Lukashenko's regime. Any actions aimed at disrupting the production and supply chains are strategically important for the security of Ukraine and Europe. Are the Belarusians ready for strikes on military targets on their territory?

Maksim Pleshko, specially for Charter97.org.

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